Three months ago, few would have predicted the Brewers would be atop the National League Central in June, but here we are. The Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates have all fallen short of preseason expectations, while Milwaukee has surprisingly kept their record above .500. Regardless of what the standings say, Milwaukee’s roster pales in comparison to the Cubs’ and Cardinals’ on paper, which is why we give the Brewers a mere 3% chance of winning the division.
Milwaukee’s team just got a bit better, however, as they’ve called up top prospect Lewis Brinson to play some outfield. Brinson was having a fine season in Triple-A, slashing .312/.397/.503. He’s hit very well for a center fielder — and exceptionally well for a good defensive center fielder who’s only 23.
Brinson’s come a long way since his early days as a professional, especially in the strikeout department. He struck out an alarming 38% of the time in Low-A back in 2013, but has hacked several percentage points off that mark since. His 22% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year is still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. He’s made this improvement without giving up much in other categories, either. His 20 extra-base hits, seven steals, healthy walk rate, and center-field defense more than outweigh the remaining strikeout risk.
KATOH adores Brinson, projecting him for 6.3 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 8.8 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his Baseball America ranking. The latter makes the No. 20 prospect in all of baseball. Both are up noticeably from the preseason. My model saw him as a no-doubt top-50 prospect over the winter, and he’s only improved his stock since.
To put some faces to Brinson’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the toolsy center fielder. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Brinson’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.
Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.
| Rank | Name | KATOH+ Proj. WAR | Actual WAR | Mah Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jay | 5.3 | 11.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | Magglio Ordonez | 5.2 | 20.8 | 2.2 |
| 3 | Vernon Wells | 12.5 | 18.7 | 2.6 |
| 4 | Felix Pie | 9.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 5 | Ryan Sweeney | 7.3 | 8.6 | 2.7 |
| 6 | Joe Borchard | 5.1 | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| 7 | Alex Escobar | 10.1 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Andrew McCutchen | 9.3 | 34.5 | 3.7 |
| 9 | Mike Darr | 5.4 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| 10 | Juan Pierre | 10.9 | 19.3 | 3.9 |
Brinson’s always had exceptional tools, and the past couple of years, he’s shown that high-minors pitching is no longer a challenge for him. Paired with his elite defense, this makes him an excellent prospect. Brinson should provide the Brewers with a boon both offensively and defensively right away. And given his youth and broad range of skills, he could develop into a star in the near future.